The Hormuz Shock

The Hormuz Shock: Sovereign Bond Repricing Across Emerging Markets

How differently can sovereign bond markets respond to the same geopolitical shock?

This SDMI research note examines local-currency 10-year government bond repricing in Türkiye, Egypt, South Korea and India following the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Using a daily event-study framework, the analysis separates the absolute size of market repricing from how unusual each move was relative to a country’s own recent history.

Türkiye experienced the largest absolute increase in yields, while South Korea’s smaller response ranked as the most unusual relative to its historical distribution.